The Five Year Plan . . .

  • June 7, 2023

GM’s CEO Mary Barra said the other day that it is not possible to sell a profitable EV for less than $40,000 and that she expects that “electric and combustion vehicle costs will equalize sometime in the latter part of this decade . . . maybe a little longer.”

In other words, all cars will cost at least $40,000 or more “sometime in the latter part of this decade . . . maybe a little longer.”

In fact, they already cost at least this much – if we are talking about EVs.

Most cost more – especially if you want more range than they come standard with. This latter being one of the lesser known hidden facts about EVs. It is a sin of omission – on purpose. Because people might chafe if they understood they will be expected to pay extra for what is already standard in non-electric cars, which do not come standard with a gas tank that’s only got about 60 percent of the capacity of the tank that’s available  . . . for a lot more money.

But battery-powered devices come standard with exactly that. The battery with less capacity. Which is the EV equivalent of buying a non-electric car with a gas tank that only holds about 6-7 gallons of fuel. This is why the typical “entry level” $40,000 EV has a range in the range of 250 or so miles. But, don’t worry! You can pay another $4,000 or so (on the low end) for a “tank” that holds the equivalent of maybe 10 gallons of fuel – which will give you range comparable to that of a thirsty gas-engined car.

But, don’t worry! Costs will equalize “sometime in the latter part of this decade . . . maybe a little longer.”

By which time, no doubt, the cost of the average new car will be at least $50,000 – if only because of inflation. Not counting the extra cost of a little more range.

Of course, for this equalization to happen, non-electric cars must be made as least as expensive as electric cars. And Mary Barra is saying they will. She just doesn’t want you to understand it.

If anything, they ought to cost less – and would – were it not for the cost of compliance, which is being used to make them more expensive (so as to equalize things) and, ultimately, to eliminate them altogether. Even hybrids are being driven off the road by the costs of compliance. Because they are not “zero emissions” (at the tailpipe) vehicles. Never mind that they “emit” almost zero of anything that’s actually a pollutant. They are under fire because they “emit” carbon dioxide – now styled more malevolently as just “carbon,” to further gaslight the rubes, who no longer understand the difference between “emissions” and pollution.

The cost of hybrids especially have got to be equalized – because they are currently about half that of the $40,000-to-start EVs Barra hopes to sell at a profit “sometime in the latter part of this decade . . . maybe a little longer.” Right now, you can buy a 2023 Toyota Corolla hybrid for $22,800 that comes standard with 600 miles of range, or more than twice the range that comes standard in every EV you buy right now for $40,000 or so.

In order for the latter to be cost-competitive with the former, the cost of a Corolla hybrid would have to almost double. Or the cost of the EV would need to go down by a similar factor. And the EV’s standard range would have to at least double, too – without adding to the cost.

Which do you suppose is the likelier outcome?

Barra herself hints at the answer when she admits that EV battery costs are still too high for manufacturers to build a profitable mass market EV. She does not say that these costs are going to come down – which EV Peddlers have been saying for the past 30-plus years. Of a piece with “Peak Oil,” except in reverse. More oil has been discovered and – were it not for the imposition of measures designed to create artificial scarcity and so increase costs of something that ought to cost less – there would be more (and cheaper) oil.

And there was, just three years ago.

That problem was solved by getting rid of the Orange Man, whose measures facilitated the abundance and low cost we are now being denied. That are in the process of being . . . equalized.

Apparently, this is going to take about five years – which appears to be the plan. Over that span of time, the government will take steps to ensure that the cost of electric cars vs. the alternatives to them equalizes – by raising the cost of the former to at least parity with those of the latter. Probably via increasing (even higher) the costs of compliance.

As well as fuel.

No doubt there have been meetings to assure this outcome. It is the only rational explanation to account for what would otherwise be inexplicable as well as untenable. That being this business of building cars that aren’t profitable – and won’t be, until “sometime in the latter part of this decade . . . maybe a little longer. ”

. . .

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